Reflections on Ebert, J. E. J, Gilbert D.T., Wilson T. D. (2009) Forecasting and Backcasting: Predicting the Impact of Events on the Future.

Some excerpts from the article (link):

“How do consumers predict their feelings following a future consumption event?”

“Forecasting, as an approach to predicting the hedonic impact of a future event, has been widely studied in the literature (Coughlan and Connolly 2001; Dunn, Wilson, and Gilbert 2003; Finkenauer et al. 2007; Gaunt, Sindic, and Leyens 2005; Gilbert et al. 1998, 2004; Kahneman and Snell 1992; Loewenstein and Frederick 1997; Mellers 2000; Read and Van Leeuwen 1998; Snell, Gibbs, and Varey 1995; Wilson et al. 2000, 2005).”

“A second approach that we propose for predicting the hedonic impact of a future event—backcasting—is one that has received much less attention. In backcasting, the consumer first considers how she is likely to feel in a future period (“I’m going to be happy in a few days because my birthday is coming up”) and then considers the effects of the prior impacting event and the passage of time  (“And if the Red Sox lose today it won’t change that much”).”

“Why Do Backcasters Predict a Greater Impact of Events on Their Future Feelings than Forecasters? Backcasters make more extreme hedonic predictions primarily because they consider the impacting information to a greater extent than forecasters do.”

“Similarly, people may use backcasting and forecasting when regulating their feelings in future and current periods, respectively. Consumers frequently use consumption events to regulate their mood—for example, buying gifts for themselves or listening to music to improve their mood (Chen, Zhou, and Bryant 2007; Gould 1997). Research shows that mood regulation can be anticipatory, used to cause a particular mood for a particular situation, or reactive, used to alter an existing mood (Erber, Wegner, and Therriault 1996; Gross 1998).”

KC’s reflections:

I hope to have an insight into student’s behaviour (in T&L) and how I can draw connections using these predictive methods of inquiry. There appears to be a conscious effort of students signing up and attending tutorials but no proper outcomes documented from them. I hope to use these predictive methods to shape the mindset of students prior to attending a tutorial as there are always expectations that attending one of these would “solve all my technical issues within my projects.”

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